News Room In the wake of severe flooding in Borno state, northeastern Nigeria, international healthcare organisation Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has warned of an imminent malaria outbreak that could devastate the region. With water supplies contaminated and healthcare systems overwhelmed, the risk of a spike in malaria cases looms large, echoing a broader global concern about the resurgence of the disease due to climate change and humanitarian crises.
This dire situation comes as world leaders convene at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to discuss the future of global health funding, particularly for malaria, AIDS, and tuberculosis. A recent report presented by the Malaria Atlas Project reveals alarming projections. Without significant increases in funding, there could be an additional 137.2 million malaria cases and up to 337,000 deaths between 2027 and 2029.
Even with current funding levels, the global fight against malaria remains precarious. Nearly 250 million cases and 600,000 deaths are already recorded annually, mostly in children and the poorest communities. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that maintaining the status quo will still lead to over 112 million more cases and 280,000 additional deaths over the next five years, due to a “perfect storm” of challenges including rising insecticide resistance, climate change, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure.
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria—responsible for a significant portion of the world’s malaria control funding—faces an urgent call for action. Should the upcoming Replenishment, scheduled for 2025, fall short of its $15.6 billion target, malaria’s resurgence could devastate entire regions, particularly across Africa.
Dr Michael Charles, CEO of the RBM Partnership to End Malaria, echoed the warnings from Borno, stressing the global implications. “The evidence is clear. Without increased funding, we will see malaria epidemics across high-burden regions. Countries already struggling with climate-induced flooding, as seen in Nigeria, are particularly vulnerable.”
The impact of a potential funding shortfall would not only exacerbate the health crisis but could also push millions deeper into poverty. In a fireside chat at the UNGA, African leaders—including His Excellency President Umaro Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau—highlighted the economic consequences of a malaria resurgence. “Malaria strains health systems pushes communities further into poverty, and overwhelms already fragile economies,” Embaló warned.
The cost of new interventions, such as dual-insecticide mosquito nets designed to counter resistance, is rising, leaving low-income countries even more reliant on external support. Experts argue that without a substantial increase in funding, these life-saving innovations will remain out of reach for many.
The global funding gap for malaria stands at over $1.5 billion, a figure expected to grow with the emerging threats. Despite the best efforts of international organisations, including MSF, to manage local outbreaks, such as those predicted in Borno, the global response is under strain.
“The future of malaria control depends on the next Global Fund Replenishment,” said Dr Charles. “Without increased investment, we will see a resurgence, particularly in vulnerable populations such as women and children, who are disproportionately affected.”
World leaders now face a stark choice: ensure malaria funding increases or risk losing hard-won progress against one of the world’s deadliest diseases. The repercussions of inaction will be felt not just in high-burden regions like Borno, but globally.
“We cannot afford to let this happen,” Dr Charles concluded. “The world has a duty to protect its most vulnerable, and this starts with ensuring adequate funding for the Global Fund Replenishment.”
